alt Hacker NewsThis is why I'm bearish on Anthropic, OpenAI, and friends. I am not confident that we will continue to see the same pace of improvement in frontier model capabilities as we have seen over the past year or two - not using similar mathematics at least. But I think that getting results that are close enough to the same standard to be a realistic substitute but in a model small enough to run locally may well happen quite quickly. And if it does - where is the moat to defend these AI organisations with their astronomical budgets when they're already starting to price more realistically and that's already killing a lot of the hype they've enjoyed until very recently? They have an accidental moat because they bought up the global supply chain for storage but that surely isn't going to last once the data centres to hold that storage are becoming liabilities.
If model performance asymptotes and CPU/GPU and RAM keep growing, even slowly, then eventually we will have frontier models on desktop that are totally competitive with hosted. It’s only a matter of time.
You already can if you’re willing to spend many thousands of dollars on a beast of a machine. I’m talking about middle tier desktops and laptops here. Maybe eventually even phones.
The only way hosted stays strongly competitive in that world is if they can keep pushing the frontier or by playing the classic social media and SaaS games of network effect building and integrations.
Many people might still use hosted, of course, but what I really mean is that their multiples won’t be justified and they will have little to no moat. AI will become commoditized, like a sophisticated next generation form of an encyclopedia with search.