alt Hacker News> the extended thesis it depends on is "No physical procedure can decide an NP-complete problem in polynomially many steps."
I think part of the confusion here, is that usually the extended church turing thesis means that any physical computation can be efficiently (in polynomial time) simulated by a deterministic turing machine. (And thus if quantum computers exist and BQP is a superset of P, the proposition is false). I've never seen it defined before as above. But im definitely not a complexity theorists.
But remember that "efficient" in terms of P and NP is about scaling. P == NP doesn't necessarily mean that a practically efficient algorithm can be found. The polynomial exponents involved may be large: O(N^1000) does eventually scale better than O(e^N), but that doesn't mean it is practically useful!