Fable/mythos are the first models from anthropic that hide 100% of reasoning tokens. So it seems to me like we're about to get a lot more data about to what extent Chinese model progress has been a consequence of distillation techniques.

Google can't do it, OpenAI didn't do it, Meta didn't do it etc etc.

Why do you think China will?

I am quite certain the gap will only grow

How so? The fact that China is going to launch a comparable model soon is the whole point of what’s happening now. Everyone knows there are going to be open models soon that have the same capabilities - Anthropic has literally said so. The restrictions now are to buy time to patch the security issues before those Chinese models are made available to the whole world.

It would take less than 1 month if not for the restrictions. One of the reason is they might be using distilling to achieve the parity.