alt Hacker NewsYou give two critiques relating to the exact numbers the author has choose (equity package at join, valuation at exit), neither of which is really related to the authors hypothesis that people misvalue EV from equity.
You can slide these numbers around however you want and the point still stands, even if you disagree with it for other reasons
my 2nd point says that due to dilution rounds your 5% chance is not 10M but about 3M so
5% * $3M = $150k expected equity value
$150k / 1.15 = ~$130k/year
which is same as you started with