alt Hacker NewsPersonally, I doubt it. Apple hamstrung themselves with unified SOC memory, there are cheap dGPUs that smoke the M5's prefill speeds and even have faster decode too. Apple is running up against the limitations of putting a mobile integrated chipset up against the desktop form factor. An SOC stops looking like a smart decision at that scale.
The software side is still pretty sketchy, too. Apple's ecosystem is fractured between NPU, MPS and Accelerate BLAS, with libraries like MLX and CoreML built precariously overtop. Apple has to commit to a full rearchitecture of their GPU to challenge Nvidia, which fractures that ecosystem even further.
I don't expect them to be AS fast as Nvidia anytime soon. Understood that they need architectural improvements to get there.
Apple's business model will be to pay Google for compute for now, and then as they get better on device, move more and more locally. So they're very well incentivized to get better. The thing they've been best at in the last 19 years has been spinning flywheels they already have, and this is exactly that.