Im not worried about this at all. The OpenAI, Anthropic and the US government can play this game all they want... They're just accelerating the development of open source models; and helping destroy the lead the US has built in AI, and their profit margins along with it.
This is like the battle between PostgreSQL and Oracle all over. Move up market, isolate yourself to enterprises, and watch while everyone else builds on PostgreSQL and erodes any technical advantage you had, until people just stop talking about you altogether.
>The OpenAI, Anthropic and the US government can play this game all they want...
OpenAI and Anthropic did not call for the US Government to limit who Fable 5 and GPT 5.6 could be rolled out to.
I generally agree, but it's a bit overstated to say "nobody talks about Oracle now" -- they made a profit of about $17 billion dollars in 2025.
The government will just claim that unsanctioned models have the potential to deliberately introduce security vulnerabilities when working on IT projects (e.g. be trained to strongly yet covertly favoring introducing compromised dependencies when you are not looking).
Then laws will be made to forbid organizations who use models other than those from the sanctioned labs to participate in critical projects on national security concerns.
All of a sudden, no business would risk using open source models anymore.
The battle was between Oracle and MySQL (and PostgreSQL won).
That until it becomes illegal to have or use open source models without approval and licence from government. With more talks about on device scanning, this could be easily plumbed in. If OS detects there is open source model, it could brick your device or alert authorities. Then next step will be limiting what operating system you can install. Likely only those where you cannot remove client side scanning.
Indeed, it's like people don't understand this is a cataclysm for US AI competitiveness.
You cannot justify such a capex on AI anymore. This will drag down the us financial markets and economy too.
> and their profit margins along with It
lol that’s a good one.
Encryption is a better example. The USG tried exactly the same tactic in the 90’s. The NSA tried to shove the Clipper chip down everyone’s throats. The USG put export controls on encryption and people went as far as to tattoo the algorithms on their body.
But like you said, they will try to control it and fail. Like they always do.