US will ban Chinese models and try to get their allies to do the same. Just like they did with Huawei. Alternatively, they'll put up legal roadblocks that open models are unlikely to jump over due to costs or other reasons.

Otherwise they're putting US frontier labs at a huge disadvantage by preventing them from recouping costs on their biggest models.

How much more will OpenAI and Anthropic models cost when they're the only AI you can legally use?