" I'd argue that current frontier models already exceed the abilities of average humans " for things that fit in their context window sure but LLMs can't learn over time the way humans can. One example is LLMs are very good at writing a few thousands line of code but they absolutely cannot write coherent million line codebases. By average human I meant the average skill level for the job. AGI would need to be able to pass a interview and get hired and the perform well enough to not get fired.
But in any case, I think more than 10% of information workers today can be replaced by current-generation models indefinitely.
Yeah it's not true that for every job, it is better than median worker of that job. But it is conceivable that for almost all jobs it is already better than the median human (not just workers of that job).