I work at a telemedicine company. We’ve benchmarked a few frontier LLMs on public medical imaging datasets. One test included high-quality and high-consensus otoscopic images. We didn’t anticipate the models to do well on something so niche, but what concerned us was how poorly calibrated the models were.

I know you can’t trust an LLM’s self-assessed “confidence” of a prediction, but I’ve found that confidence can at least be directionally correct for some tasks. For our benchmarks, however, confidence was poorly correlated. What’s worse is that binary classification models (“Do you see $diagnosis in this photo?”) highly influenced the LLM to confidently predict $diagnosis.

I’m concerned for those using LLMs for diagnostics, and getting confidently led to the wrong conclusion.