alt Hacker NewsYeah, that seems grossly unrealistic. They are growing. Neutron is almost complete, and I'd expect significant growth in their launch revenue from that, and their space services are also doing well. So I could easily see their revenue increasing 5x over the next 5 years, maybe 10x. But that market cap can only be justified by the space market as a whole growing 100x, and RL maintaining a significant portion of it with strong competition from SpaceX, Blue Origin, and others.
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I don't follow your math. Let's say we want to target a price to earnings ratio of 20-25. That requires 2.3-3 billion of profit. If they increased their revenue 10x, they'd have 5 billion revenue, which puts them not super far from the target.
So let's say they need to 20x or 30x revenue. That would mean their new size needs to be similar in size to the current space market as a whole. If they have a compelling price, that might require a 5x growth in the space market as a whole? Less than that if you think they're really good at pulling in the new customers? I don't understand where you got 100x.
A rocket being nearly complete just means they haven’t started the multi year testing delays when the first couple of launches inevitably fail
> Neutron is almost complete...
I've made hundreds of thousands of dollars from my early investments in RKLB but this isn't true if by "complete" you mean they have a proven launch vehicle. The company is now targeting late 2026 for Neutron's inaugural flight.
Neutron was announced in 2021. There were hopes for a 2024 first flight. Then it was mid-to-late 2025. Now it's Q4 2026 after a failure related to the stage 1 tank earlier this year.
If anyone can pull off using carbon composite for a launch vehicle of this size, it's RKLB. But nobody has done it before and I think the retail investor base is taking for granted something that is not at all guaranteed. There's much more risk than a lot of people think.
In some ways, RKLB is more like pre-clinical biotech stocks, which usually produce binary outcomes (a drug succeeds or it fails, and the company's fate is based on that). If Neutron works, RKLB gets to execute its grand vision. If it fails, it doesn't. The vision (and valuation) doesn't work without Neutron.