FWIW I do think that availability of competitive open weight and other non-frontier models, along with improvements in harnesses that can get good results out of these models, will result in less concentration and a healthier marketplace.

However, these frontier labs are also making moves that could let them capture a disproportionate share of the upside. One possibility is a situation analogous to the smartphone manufacturing space, where there are dozens of players but just a handful (e.g. Apple, Samsung in smartphones) capture the lion's share of the revenue.