see, I don't need to "bet this"; the inverse is true: the people placing large bets are either going to get their AGI, or fail miserably.

I don't need to bet anything. I'm not a sociopath who thinks the AI god needs to be built, appeased, etc. That's the torment nexus.

So, it's pretty easy to see realistically if you are satisified with local models and how they affect what you actually do.

I can see the POV of a software engineer that isn't specialized to any specific topic being replaced by various models.

But again, I see the sigmoid, not the "AGI" or the "this baby has grow very big in 1 year, urely it'll become a giant in 5.