I actually think we're in a strange situation with AI compute.

Right now, we have models that are statistical models of language, with a world model and reasoning "falling out" of a lot of effort.

It's like we've made something that's a little bit intelligent, and now we're trying to amplify that trick to create something that's quite intelligent. And - don't get me wrong - it works.

But it's also super, super inefficient. We're having machines "think out loud" to compensate for the quality of their thought processes. We elongate the path to make up for the progress made on a given step.

I tink there's probably a much smarter way of doing things that will require qualitative architectural (and quite possibly hardware) innovations. Right now we're on the path to a Dyson sphere: that's probably not going to be necessary once we figure out a smarter way to think.