SpaceX stock drops to a new low and loses $1T in value in a month

Are there any reasonable analyses of the practicality of data centers in space?

I know Dwarkesh Patel was interviewing Elon and brought up the fact that power cost for data centers is only 20%. The number I could find is 7-18%? GPUs are the majority of the cost. I don't think Elon responded directly to that.

There's the argument that licensing to build these things is cheaper in space. But earth has a lot of space in the middle of nowhere that no one would object to. That seems cheaper than space.

And the heat dissipation argument against it seems like a good one but I don't know if it's actually just a small engineering problem that can be solved cheaply or more fundamental.

On the plus side, you could say there is better connectivity in orbit. But if you're running inference, you'd probably want to talk to the same server that has your context cached. As it whips around earth, your latency would vary a lot, right?

I'd love it if someone could point me to a better analysis. It's an interesting question in general. Not just because one of the highest valued companies in the world is based entirely on its feasibility.

Anybody that has traded crypto knew how to trade the SpaceX IPO. The IPO was just a low float/high fdv shitcoin launch. It's free money.

Before the IPO there was much concern that the changes in rules to allow fast inclusion in indices like Nasdaq-100 and Russell 1000 would mean that there would be an artificially elevated price. Was that effect just over-estimated? Or should SPCX have dropped even further without that support?

Germans are getting an existential crisis if VW's profit is "only" $8 billion and unprofitable companies in the US are initially sold at $trillion market cap.

SpaceX is not a growth stock. The launch business is limited and circular with Starlink, Twitter is a loss and xAI's hardware rental business is being entered by Meta and others.

Past month:

38 comments - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=48948435 - "Short sellers notch $8.7B profit as SpaceX shares dip to IPO price" - reuters.com | 71 points | 3 hours ago

281 comments - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=48933344 - "SpaceX stock erases all its gains and slides below IPO price in intraday trading" - latimes.com | 306 points | 1 day ago

603 comments - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=48920181 - "SpaceX bond worth 10% less than issue price – heading for junk bond status" - ft.com | 561 points | 2 days ago

98 comments - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=48639057 - "SpaceX sheds $400B in market value as debut rally hits reverse" - ft.com | 77 points | 24 days ago

66 comments - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=48634931 - "SpaceX Drops 14% in One Day, Price Now Below IPO Launch" yahoo.com | 62 points | 24 days ago

21 comments - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=48598558 - "The average SpaceX buyer post-IPO is almost under water after two-day slide" - cnbc.com | 40 points | 28 days ago

Bonus:

149 comments - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=48604186 - "Americans express unease over SpaceX's influence on retirement savings" - theguardian.com | 253 points | 27 days ago

94 comments - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=48576113 - "With Wall Street’s help, you’re about to be forced to buy stock in SpaceX" - paulkrugman.substack.com | 114 points | 29 days ago

Investors clearly aren't familiar with rocket launches. SpaceX scrubbed their Starship launch last evening so they could fix an engine issue. SpaceX stock immediately crashed. Even worse, Rocket Lab, an entirely unaffiliated company, had its stock plummet after the SpaceX scrub.

morningstar said the fair price is $62

Curious that Tesla stock fell in price at the moment of the Starship abort.

For what possible reason would a failed rocket launch affect the fortunes of an electric car company?

I wonder what does it all mean for possible SpaceX Tesla merger.

Shorties having a field day with it!

I doubt it will ever become a $1T company ever again.

Pretty sure they could recover all they've lost and more if they just hogtie elon to one of their rockets and launch it into the sun.

Might even be able to write it off on their taxes as they'd be doing the planet a public service.

Great. We can only hope it goes to zero.

SpaceX insiders have so many shares, once they can they are going to dump hard, get ready for another -$1T. Morningstar says $780 billion.

Clown show:

Raymond James - $800

Morgan Stanley - $300

Deutsche Bank - $255

JPMorgan - $225

Goldman Sachs - $205

Citi - $200

Biggest scam in history! :)