alt Hacker NewsI completely understood the idea of Starlink and expected that it would be successful and useful, which it is. I've worked in data centers for decades now, and I am incredibly skeptical of the "data centers in space" sales pitch. It seems like an actual scam.
Data centers submerged in the ocean or placed in the desert seem much more promising. But I have only an enthusiast's understanding of rockets and physics, so I'm genuinely open-minded to the possibility.
Is there anyone credible who thinks this is a plausible pathway for SpaceX to make huge amounts of profit?
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Repairability and depreciation are the main problems. A earth data center can be repaired, depreciated, and recycled at EoL recovering some of the costs. SpaceX datacenters are a total write off from the moment they are launched.
No. It really is a scam. Everyone with understanding of the physics involved wrote so. Heat dissipation + radiation + launch cost make it a no-go.
SPCX is valued as an AI company; any and all issues you have with AI company valuations apply to to SPCX.
I too agree that SPCX’s space business is real and valuable, but it’s (almost completely) irrelevant here.
The only barely sane rationale that I’ve heard for wanting datacenters in space is that they would give space-x low latency signal processing capacity it would need to turn Starlink into a real time Passive SAR constellation.
> Is there anyone credible who thinks this is a plausible pathway for SpaceX to make huge amounts of profit?
Scott Manly (who I think is credible) has a video where he goes over the logistics of SpaceX's space based data centers. He seems to think its an idea worth pursuing, but its important to note that his expertise is space tech, and not business strategy.
Richard Campbell did a great talk at NDC a month about about this - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eo7MEPgWGic
> Data centers submerged in the ocean
Sooner or later it's going to leak.
The only way it makes sense is if you think the massive job losses due to AI will lead to people burning down datacenters on earth. An older spec'd and unmaintainable datacenter is worth way more than one in ashes.
To me it feels like a way for Musk to justify directing AI money towards his first true love, which was space.
Let's just put it this way:
The ISS produces about 120 kilowatts of electricity.
An Nvidia Blackwell B200 GPU uses 1.2 kilowatts of electricity.
So, you would need a similar array of solar panels and radiators just to power 100 of them. You probably would need 2-3 launches for a satellite this big, and realistically, you would just make smaller satellites.
That's $4,000,000 worth of GPUs, A couple millon or more of RAM, SSDs, etc., a radiation-proof satellite housing to support all of that hardware, solar arrays, launch costs ($74M per Falcon launch), all for maintenance to be impossible and the hardware to become obsolete in a couple of years.
It's a delusion unless we invent some way to go to space for free.
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The ocean is worse than space from every perspective but cooling, radiation shielding, and cost/ease of installation. But that just highlights how bad of an idea space-based data centers are at this time.