alt Hacker NewsTesla car sales peaked in 2023 and have declined since. They've retired the models S, X, and the CyberCab is barely selling.
Tesla also peaked at about 15% of Toyota sales. Tesla profit margins are now comparable to regular car manufacturers. Robots are a pipe dream. Robotaxis are a decade into the future as a meaningful business.
How exactly does Tesla's market cap make any sense?
Everything you said sounds about right to me.
The point I was making was based on a reference to their market cap when it was $20bn in 2018. At the time there was overwhelming and biased negative sentiment about how it was over-valued at the time that wasn't based on a sound analysis.
Funny enough, I think the answer to your question may be in what happened back then.
In 2018 Tesla had a dominant technological advantage in EVs and a strong brand. There was overwhelming anti-tesla investment propaganda, and history's largest short position against them. When a company is over-shorted and then increases in intrinsic value instead of going bankrupt, those shorts covering will put further upwards pressure on the share price. So for at least a while, maybe a long while, the company will be over valued to correct for the previous over-shorting.