Open-weight models were lagging 4 months behind OpenAI/Anthropic at the beginning of the year. They are now just 4-6 weeks behind.
And given that Chinese models are closing the gap there are basically two thing that could be happening. One is that they are moving faster than US companies developing closed models, and two that we're starting to hit a plateau for model capabilities where all the easy gains have been plucked, and now it's not really possible to move forward at the same rate on the frontier. Of course, both things could be happening at the same time.
Kimi K3 is still worse than Fable and Fable was trained >4 months ago.