Very difficult to sense check that substack post without access to the TLB credit agreement.

There are likely management service agreements from xAI proper -> SPV to cover precisely what the author talks about. Clearly, xAI could play games but without seeing the docs (which are not public), it's very difficult.

This article's basic point is right though. On the other hand, the LTV of this deal was approx 50% debt-financed (not too high; very much depends on the "V"). At 12.5%, it's not as if its being priced as a high quality asset.

Overall, substack post was too bearish. The wider point is that there's a lot of froth tied to what has now become systemically opaque - namely the circular deal flow that every hyperscaler, nvidia, neoclouds and friends are now engaged in. When the proverbial hits the fan, that stuff will be difficult to price and find few willing buyers with the competence to underwrite.

The systemic issues are the bigger concern than one specific deal imo.