Is Fable 5 just Opus 5 with some additional long-context management modifications for extended self-directed work? Or are they actually truly different models?
No, they're different models. Knowledge cutoff has been updated.
based on pricing I think it's safe to say they're different. why would they charge half price when fable has been very popular?
I suspect they make a big model first. In this case it's Fable. Then they run the shrinker steps to make Sonnet and Opus. Sonnet is smaller, takes less time to make, so it got released first. Opus needed few more weeks to cook.
With this iteration they had a delay because when the Mythos was ready they had some sort of "Oh shit" moment and spent half a year adding safety guards to it. Then slowly rolled it out, but got another delay due to a government block. So, maybe the work on making Opus and Sonnet only started after they got a green light from the administration.
Presumably, now that they learned how to do this safety-wrapping the next iteration of Mythos / Fable / Opus / Sonnet is going to show up faster.
Something like that.