Yes, I think it indicates real progress in fluid intelligence. Clearly these models are making huge strides in usefulness which are well correlated with their ARC-AGI scores.
I don't think this is benchmaxxing. These companies are locked in a competition to produce the best software engineer, and falling behind is an existential risk. I doubt they are wasting time benchmaxxing ARC-AGI.
nah they could make educated guess about arc and benchmaxx it too.
If they were benchmaxxing, surely they would score higher than 30% on ARC-AGI.