https://x.com/jodavaho/status/2081416737883353417?s=20

(shame x is the easist way I have to post two images quickly)

dots seem to fit bls pretty well. Just to bound the effect of the spike, that is a +10% jump, so over a 3 year window it would produce a +3% bump. If they do a backwards only, it'd lag by up to 3 years. So, it's plausible/feasible, maybe not definitive.