A couple of important points to note:

1. Most of the productivity studies in Figure 3 about are from the 2023-2024 era. (Which is why as some comments note, Copilot is actually way up there in the numbers. Note that this was from the era of spicy autocomplete and long before coding agents exploded on the scene.)

2. AI adoption at work is actually very low: even though 50%+ of Americans currently self-report (major caveat) using AI at least weekly, they use it for only 6% of work hours. (You can play with the charts here to see this [0]) This is what the recent Google study [1] called "broad but shallow use."

Notably, the same surveys find time savings of 2% of working hours, so a whopping 30%+ productivity boost per hour of AI used. And this is across industries. Despite being self-reported, it does line up with many of the other controlled studies (see TFA and [2, 3]). Some economists suggest that even with this low level of adoption, we may already be seeing the impact on labor productivity at national-level aggregate statistics! [2, 3]

As I said in another thread, my concern is that the impact on jobs is only beginning because 6% of work hours is a very low number. However given how useful people are finding it based on self-reported, micro- and macro-level numbers, adoption is only going to up, both in breadth (more people) and depth (more tasks). I fear the impact will happen gradually, as adoption inches up... and then suddenly.

[0] https://www.genaiadoptiontracker.com/

[1] https://blog.google/innovation-and-ai/technology/research/un... (discussion: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=49020335)

[2] https://www.stlouisfed.org/on-the-economy/2025/nov/state-gen...

[3] https://aleximas.substack.com/p/what-is-the-impact-of-ai-on-...