What I really started to notice is that SOTA models are really good at putting themselves out of the job.
We can see this already with GPT how luna can do 90% of what sol is used for. The only reason why china still bothers 'distilling' models is accurate training data generation, something that oai and anthropic had to spend years collecting while trying to dodge legal challenges.
The more intelligent models get, the more people will offramp to cheaper solutions that get the job done. There's no real benefit to using a sota model when the accuracy is already 99% and I think that is the biggest danger to US labs.
This is a general theme with technology and the 'S-curve'. Let's not even get into whether the improvement for AI reasoning ability has slowed - for practical purposes of writing a React frontend, it has.
But other tech is like that - I don't even remember when I bought my LCD TV - 2018 I think? I have no inclination of buying a new one.
Technology has a tendency to replace new technology, or intrude into vacant areas, but its very rare for technology to replace non-technology (like human interaction).
Most of the recreation humans do in front of screens is tending to (para)social relationships.
Anything but Sol is not sufficient for complex (or even just large) enough code.
I can’t see the difference between terra and sol but I always use Sol. You guys can tell the difference. Even medium to xhigh is not that clear the difference.
The upper end is all about coding. If I have terra on extra high write code, Sol will find a plethora of bugs and rip the code apart.
Anything else? Sure use a cheaper model.