> For example, I worry that biology will have a strong attacker-defender asymmetry, where sufficiently capable models may be able to quickly weaponize pandemic-level viruses with widely available materials, whereas defense against these agents is a multi-year operational task in the best case (as we saw with Operation Warp Speed)5. Questions like this should be empirically answered by rigorous pre-release testing, not assumed in advance.

One of two outcomes are true in this scenario: 1) this is unrealistic fear-mongering or 2) we're all fucked.

I just don't see how our solution to this can be export controls or bans. If the fear of a bioweapon engineered by an open weight AI is a legitimate threat, our only option is to develop effective countermeasures (and perhaps the same AI will assist with protecting). Open weights are not going away and pretending like some sort of "ban" will prevent bad actors from accessing them is a fairy tale.