alt Hacker News>Prediction Markets are people gambling.
If you think the market has it wrong, why don't you make money by betting against it?
https://polymarket.com/event/presidential-election-winner-20...
>There's armed goons nabbing people off the streets and murdering political opponents patrolling American cities right now.
What is the actual per-capita rate of big flashy news stories? Remember that the US has a population of 340 million. One-in-a-million events will occur every day; they aren't necessarily representative.
Replies
> If you think the market has it wrong, why don't you make money by betting against it?
I don't just think "the market has it wrong", I think a market is wrong conceptually. It is not an epistemological tool, it's rich people gambling - a money-weighted accumulation of guesses - and I'd rather not partake.
> What is the actual per-capita rate of big flashy news stories?
What is the appropriate rate of brownshirts murdering political opponents? Which level of kids being nabbed from their homes is acceptable?
> If you think the market has it wrong, why don't you make money by betting against it?
Because I am not gambler. And it is not "market" it is a casino. It does not predict, people put in bets. And like I said, while I understand gambling appeal on an emotional level, I decided to not be a gambler.
> One-in-a-million events will occur every day; they aren't necessarily representative.
It is literal official policy. Not a random event.