No, you couldn't have. There are plenty of ML innovations that when push comes to shove only depend on having access to more compute, but this is one of the worst examples I've ever seen.
I always thought that the jump from LSTM/GRU -> Attention wasn't a particularly big one. Instead of partial unroll, do a full unroll. Why not (because it's too expensive, that's why not). Every component was known, and everybody anywhere near ML knew perfectly well why NOT to try that: because you just don't have the compute to fully unroll an LSTM. From that point attention is optimized (they key-query mechanic). The big innovation is not so much the mechanism itself but realizing the parallelize-ability of it.
It's sort of like if one would today make the "improvement" to attention to replace they key-query-value mechanic by just dropping it while making the entire context the latent space. That will outperform attention, nearly guaranteed. It'll also make even Google's cluster networks meltdown. Attention is one of those innovations that came mostly from realizing you had better hardware than everybody else and asking yourself how to use it. It's still quite the accomplishment, they had to get it working. But nobody else was really capable of making this leap.
replace they key-query-value mechanic by just dropping it while making the entire context the latent space.
What do you mean by this? Like concatenating all token embeddings into one large vector?
I agree 100%. This field is not amenable to progress from people with a pen sitting in a corner proving theorems. The math is mostly uncertain vibes and to test it you need millions of dollars of compute. Smart loners just can't.