alt Hacker News~300 - 200 = 100mn useful barrels.
If we're drawing it down by about 4 a week, that's about 25 weeks.
If it's really closer to the 180 needed to prevent collapse and hit unusable supply then it's 120mn barrels and we're at 30 weeks.
A year is 52 weeks.
That also is based on a massive assumption of constant draw rate. Something is probably going to change, who knows when. Maybe the war ends and things actually reopen soon. Maybe Iran manages to blow up Saudi pipelines avoiding the straight. Maybe China's SPR runs out (nobody knows what it's at) and international demand skyrockets again. Other reserves are likely to be eliminated soon as well, putting more international pressure.
I wouldn't have a clue what the rate will be in a month or two, but I can't imagine it'll be anywhere near the same as the past few weeks.
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Oh yeah, I fucked up my math. Thanks.
Regardless of usage patterns, oil simply can't go above a certain price or a chunk of the northeast dies in winter.
This war is the largest self inflicted wound to the US in history. And Trump is pretending like all is fine because he keeps, erroneously, believing the oil problem he caused will resolve itself.
Of course the next (Dem) president will be blamed for low oil reserves and high prices to refill it.