A lot of HN posters thought it was already bending at GPT4o/GPT4.5. Turns out, it kept accelerating (at agentic tasks).

Predicting when the sigmoid bends is difficult and predicting how long until it unbends is equally difficult.

The simpler assumption is that over enough time, the S functions stack together for long enough that working backwards from exponential is a better predictor of reality.

These stacked S curves have continually been true with most technology.

It hasn’t bent already? 2022-2024 certainly seemed far more exponential than 2024 to present.