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bonsai_spooltoday at 10:23 AM2 repliesview on HN

I think endometriosis is common enough that it would be caught earlier ("Oh, does your joint pain get worse right before you menstruate? Tell me more"), but your point is reasonable.

I counter with the platitude that common things are common - especially in fields like primary care, the amount of wasted effort one would expend in pursuing unusual explanations for every presenting symptom is considerable. We thus have to examine patients over time and trust that they will tell us if things have indeed not followed the course of the initial diagnosis.


Replies

tpoachertoday at 11:18 AM

While this is true as a platitude, I do find that medical colleagues seem to treat this platitude rather overzealously at times, often completely disregarding the posterior probabilities involved. I like to call this the prior-over-posterior fallacy/bias (though one could argue this is simply a variant of the normalcy bias)

E.g., I get the whole "if you hear galloping think horses not zebras" adage, but I guarantee you, if someone comes and says "hey when I was in Africa I saw a black and white striped animal galloping really loud", I bet you an uncomfortably large percentage of the "horses not zebras" crowd would still favour a horse over a zebra diagnosis, despite the overwhelming posterior.

Combine this with our (otherwise reasonable) tendency of avoiding the information bias of seemingly unnecesary tests, and it becomes a big problem, whereby uncommon conditions are treated as common, thereby often escaping detection altogether, and driving down their apparent prior probability even lower, causing a diagnostic vicious cycle.

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NorthSouthNorthtoday at 3:05 PM

You'd think, but I have 4 friends who have been diagnosed, and they all have horror stories. This is in 3 countries, none of which are the US, but from reading Reddit, it seems the US has the same issue.