>This seems to be the end of the road for LLM's
This is an amazingly ignorant thing to say given the current pace of progress.
There is high rate of progress in specific domains, not high rate of progress in generalness. The models haven't gotten generally smarter, for things they didn't focus on the models are just as bad as a year ago.
unless you assume endless progress, fast pace of progress will get you quicker to the plateau.
And sales of disco records were up 400% for the year ending 1976. If these trends continue...
Can you quantify this rate of progress? Because someone always comes around and says there's been exponential progress in the past <short timeline> every time someone complains that models just aren't very good. Both can't be true