alt Hacker NewsIdk about end of the road, I’m sure they can squeeze out some more performance by curating even more data and doing even more RL.
But I would bet that pretty much all of the improvement we’ve seen over the last year with coding has come from RL, not from the models becoming particularly stronger. And this makes sense, if models grow sublinearly with compute. And it seems like they do.
It seems pretty obvious from the steep 'intelligence' drop-off on out-of-distribution tasks that the performance improvement is from throwing untold tens of billions at RL. There are legions of highly skilled people employed solely to feed the RL loop. Evidently effective, but there's an unmistakable feeling this won't ultimately be the way forward.