I agree that it's working good enough and that it's here to stay: mostly everybody around me uses AI too but...

> Did Uber die when a trip across town went from $3 to $13? No. It's giving more rides than ever, 10x more than when it was $3.

The competition from open-weights models is already putting pressure on how much this can be billed. That's today, with stuff like OpenAI announcing 80% cuts on terra and luna. Tomorrow, in addition to the pressure from open-weights models, there's going to be pressure from chinese hardware: Tencent, Alibaba, etc. are all already working on their own AI chips.

What good would, say, a SOTA open-weights model running on chinese chips (chinese chips located in China or elsewhere btw) do to, say, Meta or Oracle's insane AI investements?

And it doesn't even have to be chinese chips: what good AMD AI chips doing inference by having weights etched on silicon will do to OpenAI and Anthropic?

All the people, especially here on HN, who were explaining six months ago that OpenAI and Anthropic models where so good for coding that coding was solved once and for all can now run better open-weights models than the proprietary ones from six months ago. For a fraction of the price.

If people, instead of paying $20 per month pay $80 per month for their AI subscriptions, what makes you believe that money is going to go to one of these companies participating in this $2 trillion debt?

And really, in which new domain have we seen the first movers being able to keep a lifetime grip on the market without getting their arse handed to them by the competition? Things moves quickly today: I'm not sure OpenAI and Anthropic are the Ford equivalent for AI.

For all I know OpenAI is "La Mancelle":

https://fr.wikipedia.org/wiki/La_Mancelle

And Anthropic is Panhard.

That AI is here to stay is a given. That people may be willing to pay more is likely (even though IMO they won't pay 4x more for something only marginally better). But that the current players are going to stay on top even though the competition closed the gaps to weeks?

I don't buy it.