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ajbtoday at 8:18 AM5 repliesview on HN

People have a bad intuition about economic mechanisms, but that does not mean that AI won't cause huge regressive effects.

The transition from independent artisans to factory work didn't cause massive unemployment. But it cause the former artisans to lose out, because they no longer had the bargaining power they had before - their work was now a commodity. This resulted in "Engel's pause", a period in which wages stagnated, and so conditions got worse because prices also increased.

But AI also isn't just automation. It's the automation of automation. You may think that you will just level up and learn the new skill set of managing AIs, but the AI companies will be collecting the data to automate that too. Often by watching you.


Replies

andersmurphytoday at 9:08 AM

Also worth pointing out Anthropic is a sponsor of The Economist. Probably muddies the water some more.

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pjc50today at 8:58 AM

Also an analogy with the globalization of manufacturing era. People have I think been prone to assuming that the West has a "magic ingredient" which entitles it to revenues from skilled work forever. A presumption that people overseas, especially in the "south" and "east", wouldn't acquire the same skills or culture. The idea that it is so absolutely critical to software development to be in an office in Silicon Valley that it's worth paying enormous premiums even relative to the rest of America and the West (+).

That is being disrupted. Ironically, by American AI firms who want a cut of all software engineering salaries globally.

(+) UK software developer working for an American multinational here, aware that my salary is "great by UK standards but not by American ones"

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matheusmoreiratoday at 9:17 AM

The only crime here is stopping before AI replaces the CEOs and politicians.

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sublineartoday at 9:50 AM

This makes no sense outside of SV.

If you work in the broader corporate world, your heads-down work may typically be writing software, but you're really more like staff IT. You get promoted into some kind of management role like "architect" and end up owning all the implementation instead of just the code.

You get passed the football a lot because that's more effective teamwork. You have weight in meetings because the business is smart enough to realize you are not just writing code. Your maintenance is basically all the operations short of the accounting and client manager stuff for that project.

AI is irrelevant unless you're really feeling a time crunch and have little alternative. Nobody cares how you do it. The meetings are a way bigger deal than the code. These types of devs are the equivalent of a bureaucrat who can sign off on a construction job and then grab a shovel.

This is the actual "future" of dev work... ahem it looks a lot like the past and present for everyone else.

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iwontberudetoday at 8:41 AM

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