> If I understand correctly, you're saying people are compute-poor but not necessarily GPU-poor because there's a lot of GPUs out there but nowhere to plug them into? If so, I'm not sure that distinction matters to the GP's point that there is too much demand to call this an oversupply.

It's a distinction without a difference if your issue is getting hold of a GPU.

But there's a significance to it if you are trying to use demand for a GPU as a proxy for demand for AI. That is where the industry is making serious mistakes.

> I am not sure Microsoft thinks there will be an oversupply either

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/microsoft-ceo-says-overbuild-...

The rest of your comment I am not going to address because it's kind of unfalsifiable. Hypotheses about what AI might be able to do in principle aren't all that useful when talking about even medium-to-long-term demand for what LLMs and GANs can provably do now.