For awhile I've found two things hard to square, that the hardware and software making up current gen AI will bring us to a socioeconomic singularity, and the reality the thing they're mostly trying to emulate is a few pounds of meat and fat running on tens of watts equivalent. On one hand the current AIs are obviously super human in some tasks, get completely dunked on in others by far simpler organisms. My cat can catch a bug out of the air, Fable 5 in Cowork can lack the dexterity to make a slideshow because I had LibreOffice instead of Microsoft Office. Not even close to analogous, but point being they appear to have pretty fundamental differences in how they can interface with the world that the economic thesis seems to gloss over.
Another interesting discrepancy is that people think current GPUs are maybe capable of running AGI but they still can barely manage photorealistic rendering of a single room in realtime, or simulate something like a shirt thrown into a pile of laundry. They can generate a video of it based on millions of existing videos, but not do a real simulation of light and physics in realtime.
You make a good point. Maybe the AI apocalypse will actually be when someone hooks up a cat brain to a super advanced AI.
> a few pounds of … running on tens of watts equivalent.
Aren’t you already describing a laptop computer? Add a local LLM and you’re fully there