If you believe that I've got a halting problem oracle to sell to you.

I think this is true.

A lot of AI believers (me too fwiw) seem to forget it’s a lot harder to ‘close the loop’ on non-code projects. I think this is because they are usually coders.

Is it really that simple ? A programming function that has set inputs and determinstic outputs is rather verifyable. A ten million lines code base is not easily verifyable. Knowing whether an agent is improving when it's working on a huge codebase is not that easy - it could easily start hurting code quality without it being clear in any output.

> no programming is verifiable, and the major LLM companies are focused on it. its the first domino to fall by probably 5+ years

Which is kinda proof they're populated by sociopaths with extremely little empathy. The people who are building that stuff are programmers, and if they had a tiny bit of functioning empathy they'd stop or slow down or at least be unenthusiastic.

And we're not talking about very high level empathy here, but the very basic kind of thinking about the effects on someone very much like yourself.