This blog conflates productivity with expertise.
Are LLMs rewarding experienced developers with tons of productivity gains? Yes.
Are LLMs actively degrading their expertise of understanding code? Also yes.
This article has made the implicit assumption that the top quartile of engineers are immune from skill decline. They're not. If you're an engineer who increasingly outsources the planning, writing, and analysis of code to an LLM, you're losing your ability to plan, write, and analyze code.
All of this is to say--senior engineers who have fully adopted AI tools are blowing smoke up their asses to dodge the reality of their own obsolescence. The senior engineers can talk about productivity all day, but they're only marginally closer to understanding a complex system that was written by LLMs than the "middle class" of engineers are.
You reading this--yes you--get over yourself. Your skills are depreciating too.
I don’t think I’m assuming experienced engineers are immune from this at all. In fact, I think the opposite.
I’ve seen senior engineers adopt AI in a way that made them noticeably worse. If you outsource the reasoning and accept plans you don’t understand then your previous experience isn’t going to save you. Nothing will.
The skill atrophy from outsourcing too much thinking is a real risk. I just don’t think that’s the point I’m trying to make here.
I’m describing a pattern I’m seeing in today. What matters is whether you understand the change being made. If you don’t, then you’re not adding much value, because the LLM can do that part better and faster than you anyway. It doesn’t matter whether you have 2 years of experience or 20.