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ux266478yesterday at 7:41 PM2 repliesview on HN

A reductive equation, economics isn't thermodynamics. Money is fictional and value is subjective and unstable. Within this context, being first to AGI means nothing if the second invention of it comes 2 months later and works an order of magnitude faster than what the first iteration had self-improved to at that point in time. First mover advantage isn't decisive, you have to actually be able to capitalize on it in a robust way.


Replies

fn-moteyesterday at 9:52 PM

> works an order of magnitude faster

This is the weakest part of the argument. Absolutely no reason to believe the second inventor will be 10x faster.

Does this ever happen? Even in traditional manufacturing, the second “inventor” starts behind and has to improve their own process to surpass the first.

799tpppyesterday at 10:25 PM

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