Lots of tech money is demonstrably wrong, at least in the general case. Microsoft's whole business model is to be the second mover. Patents exist because first mover advantage alone isn't enough to hold onto a win.

If AI is different, the onus is on AI folk to explain why, not the reverse.

The frontier labs are racing as hard as they can right now because they know as well as anyone else that they're at best 6 months, probably closer to 3 months, ahead of the generic commodity AI market. The majority of the tech money currently boosting them is a bet that either they can stay that far ahead without tripping, or that a moat can be engineered. It's not at all clear that it can - or, if it can, that it will before the money runs out.