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Aperockytoday at 3:27 PM2 repliesview on HN

> not available to 99.999999999999999999%

There are not enough human 25 years old in history for this many 9s. You had 21 nines, which would only make sense if there were 10 billion billion humans ever and that he is the only one. However, the current estimate is there were 107 billion humans ever alive in history, so your statement is impossible even if the estimate is off by 10000 fold.


Replies

autophagiantoday at 3:52 PM

Your failure here is that you are using normal math, not Effective Altriusm math. That number should not only include past/current 25 year olds, but also all possible future 25 year olds, including all 25 year olds simulatable by a future powerful AI. In that context, the estimation is quite modest.

27183today at 3:28 PM

ha you beat me to it by mere seconds

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