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Taikhoom10yesterday at 4:12 PM3 repliesview on HN

Yeah while a positive step, I do not understand a 90% stock increase.


Replies

missedthecuetoday at 1:05 AM

So they added $30B market cap for a drug that would do by my napkin estimate about ~$7B average annual sales for 20 years as a front line treatment. Based on that alone, $30B in added market cap isn't enough. How much would you pay for $150B in high margin revenue?

But even more is the validation of this new custom MRNA novel cancer treating platform. If you take this data result to be a 'proof of concept', the expected value of the rest of their pipeline is suddenly worth a lot more.

Of course, this is all assuming the data is accurate and the drug gets approved, neither of which are 100% guaranteed.

Plutoberthyesterday at 7:10 PM

See it as $60B value total among Moderna and Merck for the success of the trial, not 150% increase.

andxoryesterday at 4:31 PM

Oh yeah? Show me your discounted cash flow analysis.