> I wonder if it could happen at some point that an alternative Android becomes so big that OEMs start supporting it.

I think this is the huge battle GrapheneOS won with Motorola. There are probably a few manufacturers of phones unhappy or nervous regarding Google.

The next battle is really on the app front. Once a country says our government and bank apps need to run on the fork of AOSP then you will start to have a real alternative to the Google/Apple (and now Huawei) duopoly.

My guess is there are a lot of candidate countries for breaking out of the American/Chinese grab on every smartphones.

So in a way the future could look bright as long as we support GrapheneOS and Motorola.