I have anecdotal experience that makes the ~$1,600 per house hold feel like an underestimate.
We purchased a Subaru Outback right around the first round of tarrifs. We were in the market for the base trim, no bells & whistles. We ended up getting the highest trim bc all the remaining base trims were post-tarrifs and and cost $3.5k more than the pre-tarrif higher trim that was already in the lot.
Mind you the Subaru outback was assembled in IL, USA so it is not just imported entirely from Japan.
And that's not considering all the other "consuming" we do (which is quite limited being outdoor ppl).
>We purchased a Subaru Outback right around the first round of tarrifs. We were in the market for the base trim, no bells & whistles. We ended up getting the highest trim bc all the remaining base trims were post-tarrifs and and cost $3.5k more than the pre-tarrif higher trim that was already in the lot.
The average car on the road is ~15 years old. The actual lifetime is likely higher. Therefore for proper tariff accounting, your subaru's contribution to this year's tariffs should be 3500/15 = $233, not $3.5k. Not to mention much of the items people buy are either:
1. domestically produced (this includes housing, the biggest cost for most people)
2. tariff exempt (think oil)
3. produced abroad, but have fat markups