It is over 10 years, so cash flow impact is ~1.8b per year if it was equal installments. Given that 30% is conditional on TikTok and YouTube agreeing to similar controls and paying similar amounts and other payment terms the number might be even lower for 2026.

Share prices are weakly correlated to news events anyway, if you ask the professionals they would say it was already "priced in" that is why a news event is not moving the stock when it doesn't move, and when it does move they will it is news event causing the move.