alt Hacker NewsIMO, this is a highly bimodal probability distribution.
I model this as two very strong attractor states (radical abundance and totalitarian power concentration). I believe the latter is way more likely without a concerted effort that we currently seem incapable of.
The “somewhere in the middle” outcomes in my opinion are not AGI-pilled, and only come about if the exponential dies hard in the next year or maybe two - as in, it’s a very specific timing prediction that needs to come true for this scenario to occur.
Replies
If we get effective AI, humans aren't going to remain in charge -- that much is inevitable. If you had a governance machine that made your country perform 10% better than other countries, so long as you deferred all decisions to it, you'd defer those decisions or get left behind. And AI probably has the potential to do far better than 10%.
Either everyone, globally, gives up on AI development, or AI is going to be in charge of all human development, and we'll just be along for the ride.
Right now, the work ahead is to shape AI so that the decision making it does as it carries us along is something we like.
Why is totalitarianism always the "easy likely" outcome?
These are often hard fought bloody and some times brilliantly organized strategic and tactical victories. That took years. Years.
Its portrayed like "oh, good guys stayed home, I guess the dictatorship wins".
Really?
Why only scenarios where humans remain in control? I think the kind of AGI needed for radical abundance would be difficult to achieve in a way that also does not lead to ASI