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well_ackshuallyyesterday at 10:52 PM1 replyview on HN

You're overestimating the amount of people that can afford a brand new car. The transition will take 15 years at least.


Replies

underwatertoday at 2:35 AM

If 100% of new cars were EVs then there might be feedback loops that accelerate the long tail. Like gas stations becoming leas profitable, less prolific, and more expensive.

You might also see battery prices push the price of new cars well below that of second hand ICE vehicles.

Even if the replacement window for existing vehicles doesn’t change, the environmental impact would run ahead of the adoption curve. High volume use cases like delivery and Ubers would be the first to switch to EVs.