> “after four years of open source LLMs, we should have three AirBnBs, two Stripes, and three Dropboxes thanks to the power of AI.”

Airbnb, Stripe and Dropbox were created in a different time when the market was much less competitive.

Saturation of software development velocity doesn’t increase large scale product opportunities in the market. It can also mean that opportunities get filled even more quickly by niche players, and nobody gets to grow to Airbnb scale.

IMO the latter is what’s currently happening. AI-powered companies are like little mammals scurrying around between the feet of the dinosaurs, and commentators like the OP look at the evolution of the brontosaurus as evidence that the mammals don’t seem to be growing as they should.