Not necessarily. The Trump administration slapping export controls on Fable, and then setting up a pre-launch review process, is a kind of regulation. A fairly aggro and controversial one, even.

If this administration actually becomes convinced that some imminent training run is likely to kill everyone, why wouldn't they act?

The key is winning the debate that ASI is species-cide by default.

We have to win it either way, because the 2028 US elections have little or nothing to do with what Xi does.