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mft_today at 7:12 AM0 repliesview on HN

> Iran has exposed many limitations and weaknesses in America's defense capabilities

I'm far from a fan of current US policy nor an apologist, but this is a flawed analysis.

The war with Iran has exposed the stupidity of entering into that particular conflict, where:

* the goal (if there was one?) was something like regime change at arm's length

* 'arm's length' means using expensive long distance precision weapons, as there was/is very little taste for an invasion

* the target (Iran) is situated next to US allies which also happen to be hugely important as oil producers/exporters

* the target can also threaten a hugely important global shipping channel - the Strait of Hormuz

* the target has prepared for this action for years if not decades, and has good-enough drone technology to hand to threaten its neighbours and the Strait of Hormuz

This is an almost unique case in the world, and as such, its lessons of "US weakness" of "US failure" simply can't be assumed to translate more broadly. Iran is/was far more a strategic blunder which could/should have been foreseen, than a sign of America's weakness.

Yes, America currently has low stocks of long-range precision munitions and Patriots, but it still has the most powerful conventional military by far, and a globally-unrivalled ability to project that power around the world, if it chooses to.

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"But what about Ukraine? What about drone warfare? America is far behind there." This may have changed the game. The heavy usage of drones in Ukraine evolved, noting Russia didn't initially invade with swarms of drones. If the US had had a strong reason to support Ukraine (imagine Russia had instead invaded Florida) they could likely have used conventional means (air superiority, tanks, men) and ended the war within a few weeks. Admittedly, now it's far less certain how those tanks and men would fare in current drone battlefield.

> and it's a fraction of the threat China is

It depends entirely on the nature of the war envisaged (see the points about Iran being a unique situation.). In particular, China does not have anything like the US Navy to project power in the way that the US still can.