alt Hacker NewsThey consider themselves to be in an arms race with all the other AI firms (including Chinese) that are not that far behind.
And... are they wrong?
This is why there's talk about negotiated "pacing."
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> And... are they wrong?
They might be! Here's one extraordinarily simplistic argument for that case:
1) "Everybody knows" that if you build Skynet (misaligned ASI) everybody dies.
2) Therefore, no rational actor will build something that might be ASI until the alignment problem is solved.
3) OpenAI publicly stated the belief that they cannot develop a theory of the "core problem" of alignment (generalization) "soon" (much less solve it!) "without the help of more powerful AI."
4) Accepting as a premise that OpenAI is THE most advanced AI organization: if they can't do it without "the help of a more powerful AI", then nobody else can either.
And so a dilemma:
- If an AI can be made that can develop the asserted-as-necessary-by-OpenAI theoretical framework, without actually being an ASI - then the alignment problem can be considered solved, and since no rational actor would make an unaligned ASI, we're fine no matter what happens, ergo there's no need to worry about an arms race.
- If an AI that would be able to develop this theory would itself be an ASI, then no rational actor would build it, because it would have to exist BEFORE alignment was "solved" - and would therefore be an unaligned ASI i.e. Skynet, which per 1) would kill everybody. Therefore nobody would build it, therefore no arms race here either.
I think the easiest critique to make of my extraordinarily simplistic argument is the unstated assumption "there are no irrational actors capable of developing frontier AI models" on which it rests.
But, there you go. They might be wrong if either the arms race doesn't matter because whoever wins it will build an aligned superintelligence and everything is gravy, or the arms race doesn't matter because everybody who's in it is smart enough to know they need to stop because they'll kill everybody by continuing.
This was the exact argument for developing nuclear bombs.
In hindsight it turned out everyone else was MILES behind.
But as soon as USA developed one, they just stole the research and got one too.